Brexit and Trade Pulse Update: Deal or “No Deal”? Preparing for a “No Deal” Brexit

The range of options, and timescales, three days after the UK should have left the EU, remains as wide as ever. We are still some way from knowing what future trading relationships will look like. Any final “no deal” preparatory steps should be taken between now and 12 April – it is not our predicted outcome, but the chances of it happening have increased. Our pulse update focuses on:

What Could Happen?
The effective deadline for the UK government and Parliament to decide a way forward is Friday 5 April, possibly slipping to Monday 8 April. The European Council will meet on 10 April to assess the situation and decide whether to extend the Article 50 deadline beyond 12 April. It is impossible to predict what governmental and parliamentary manoeuvres will lead to this week.

Top 10 Impacts of Tariffs on Imports
Changes to UK import policy in the event of a “no deal” Brexit will mean an increase in tariff costs on a range of imports from the EU (including some important products for retailers such as meat, dairy, fish, clothing and ceramics) and a reduction in tariff costs on a much wider range of products from outside the EU.

Impact of a “No Deal” on UK/ EU Borders
A “no deal” Brexit will mean a sharp end to “free circulation” of goods inside the EU’s single market, with goods traded between the EU and UK being treated as “imports” and “exports”. This will involve a complete reconfiguration of existing customs formalities carried out at EU and UK borders, with the introduction of import declarations, customs checks and – potentially – customs duties.